China`s Rise and Cooperative Security in East Asia: Do European Expierences Matter?The economic and political rise of China represents one of the most important developments in the first decade of the 21st century. Its integration into the multilateral system poses one of the most important challenges. This has implications for both, the international system as well as the regional order in the East Asian security complex. Due to the significance of these shifts in influence and power, this process is not without conflict. However, a more cooperative implementation of it seems possible as it is in line with the interests of the most important powers involved in it. Against this background an increased integration of China in a ‘new world order’ appears to be reasonably realistic: First, China has benefitted from this international order and demands a stronger participation in it but no change of its structures. Second, the growing multipolarisation of the international system inevitably leads to an integration of the rising powers in order to ensure its viability. The framework conditions are far less favourable in the East Asian regional security complex: (1) A comprehensive, sufficiently institutionalised system of cooperation among the states in the region is missing. While the economic interdependence is well advanced, there are no structures for cooperation, in particular in the area of security policy. (2) The region suffers from numerous unsolved regional conflicts with a high potential of escalation such as, for example, territorial disputes, the North Korean problem and the future political status of Taiwan. (3) It is in East Asia where the interests of the US and China collide. While Washington uses its new Pacific strategy of 2011 for preserving its hegemonic-power status, Beijing aims to gradually weaken the position of the US in the region.
The security problems in the politically and economically most significant and dynamic region have increased in recent years. China is modernising its armed forces, thereby increasing its projection capabilities, but without any intentions of competing with the technologically most advanced nation, the US. However, it strives to prevent the US, the most powerful actor in the Pacific region (just off China’s coast), from having any military options or at least to make them very costly for Washington. The US (like its regional allies including Japan, South Korea and the Philippines) is also rearming in the region, reinvigorating its regional alliances and working on the establishment of a free trade zone which will exclude China. China’s rise which is unprecedented in speed, leads to misperceptions, instabilities, fears and defensive reactions in the entire region. The policy of North Korea acting as regional spoiler further exacerbates the difficult situation. Recent conflicts (for example, over the reduction of rare earth exports or the ownership of the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands disputed between China, Taiwan and Japan) have increased the demand of most countries in East and South-East Asia bordering China, for a balancing role of the US serving as a reassurance in the region. To sum up: East Asia is trapped in a security dilemma, which obviously cannot be effectively overcome by an increasing economic interdependence.
In view of these facts, the research aims to explore the following research question: To what extent can European and in particular German experiences in dialogue, détente, confidence-building and arms control be used as an approach to solving the security dilemma in East Asia? More specifically, it shall be assessed if and to what extent Chinese Think Tanks, which actively contribute to the work of political leaders in China, are willing to draw on these European and German experiences in order to establish structures for cooperative security in East Asia. Main research has been carried out within the framework of a research trip (eight weeks) to Beijing in 2014.
The project draws on the one hand on substantial research studies of German and international détente policy as well as Ostpolitik during the East-West conflict, specifically on the concept of a Pan-European peace order and the CSCE (Conference on Security and Cooperation) and on the other hand on extensive own research on China’s changing role in the region and world politics.
Letzte Änderung: 24. Juni 2019