Seminar Series: Computation & Data

Speaker: Derek Groen from Brunel University London. Derek is a lecturer in simulation and modeling, and his research is interdisciplinary, focusing primarily on multiscale modelling and high-performance computing for various applications.

Title: Multiscale Migration Modelling using Supercomputers: enabling agent-based modelling forecasts in a world of messy, inaccessible, biased and incomplete data

Abstract: In this talk I will present the multiscale migration modelling approach that we have developed in my group during the EU-funded HiDALGO CoE project (hidalgo-project.eu). The approach aims to forecast where persons displaced abroad by conflict may arrive. This information is useful to NGOs and other humanitarian organizations as it can enable them to prepare refugee camps in advance, and at the right level of capacity. We apply an agent-based modelling algorithm to construct the simulations, and have coupled them to a range of other models and data sources (e.g. weather data, food security data and conflict generators) to try and produce accurate forecasts. Our approach has been validated against data from ~8 different conflicts, and it is being tested in a collaboration with the Save The Children NGO. Additionally, it is currently one of the main simulation approaches used in the ITFLOWS project (itflows.eu).

As part of this talk, I will also present some highlights on (a) executing our approach in parallel on large scale supercomputers, (b) how we can use sensitivity analysis to guide our development directions, (c) how we try to cope with the imperfect data that is rife in these contexts and (d) how we are currently working on many-objective optimisation algorithms to make automatic camp site selection possible.